Energy in the Shadow of War: No Need for Panic Buying

By Stephanus SB Raharjo, Social Observer

THE world may feel uneasy. The escalation of tensions between the United States–Israel and Iran has once again dominated global headlines. Television networks, online news portals and social media are filled with speculation: the possibility of open war, threats to the Strait of Hormuz and the specter of soaring global oil prices.

History indeed shows a familiar pattern. Every tension in the Middle East, sooner or later, tends to resonate all the way to fuel pumps across the world. Energy—particularly oil—remains the lifeblood of the global economy. Even a small disruption can trigger waves of anxiety.

Yet one thing is often forgotten: fear usually spreads far faster than facts.

In Indonesia, the public frequently hears a figure that sounds alarming: the national fuel reserve is said to last only about 20 to 23 days. This number is often interpreted too simply—and often incorrectly—as if fuel stations would run dry after three weeks.

In reality, modern energy systems do not operate like a refrigerator that can suddenly become empty.

The figure frequently cited refers to operational reserves—the minimum level of stock maintained while new supplies continue to flow into the system. Domestic production continues, imports arrive periodically, tankers dock at ports, refineries process crude oil and distribution flows to fuel terminals and gas stations.

Energy moves through a system that is simultaneous and constantly rotating.

In other words, the 21-day figure is not a countdown to crisis. It is an indicator of stock management within a dynamic supply chain.

Under normal operating conditions, Indonesia’s national fuel supply remains relatively stable. Even ahead of Ramadan and Idul Fitri—periods when energy consumption typically rises—the government and state energy company Pertamina usually conduct stock build-ups to strengthen supply buffers.

Another aspect often overlooked by the public is that Indonesia’s energy sources are far more diverse than commonly imagined.

The Middle East is indeed important, but it is not the only source. Indonesia also imports crude oil from West Africa, including Nigeria and Angola, whose crude characteristics match the configuration of domestic refineries. From Southeast Asia, such as Malaysia and Vietnam, Indonesia receives regional supplies that are relatively close in logistical terms.

Australia is also an important supplier of certain types of crude oil and condensate, with relatively stable distribution routes. In recent years, crude oil from the United States has also entered Indonesia’s supply mix, particularly light sweet crude suitable for refinery blending.

Meanwhile, Singapore plays a central role as Asia’s largest energy trading hub. Many refined petroleum products—gasoline, diesel and jet fuel—are traded through this hub before reaching various countries, including Indonesia.

This diversification helps ensure that Indonesia’s energy supply system does not depend on a single region.

Technology, meanwhile, is playing an increasingly important role. National energy flows are monitored through digital control centers that track the movement of crude oil tankers, refinery capacity, tanker truck distribution and stock levels at thousands of fuel stations in real time.

In the past, energy management relied heavily on manual reports that often arrived too late. Today, data moves almost as fast as the energy itself. Risks can be detected earlier, and responses can be made more quickly.

In the age of data, crisis mitigation is no longer merely about stockpiling reserves. It is about the ability to read situations accurately and make decisions with precision.

Of course, optimism does not mean there is no homework to be done. Geopolitical conflict is a reminder that energy is not merely an economic commodity—it is also a matter of national security.

Indonesia still needs to strengthen its strategic energy reserves to provide longer buffers in the event of global disruptions. Storage infrastructure and refinery capacity must continue to be expanded so that dependence on imports can gradually be reduced. Energy diversification—from biofuels to electric vehicles—must also accelerate so that Indonesia’s energy future does not rely solely on oil.

Ultimately, however, energy resilience is not only about supply. It is also about collective maturity.

In that context, the least helpful response is panic buying. When people rush to buy fuel out of fear of shortages, what actually occurs is disruption to a distribution system that was otherwise functioning normally. Unnecessary spikes in demand can create long queues that should never have existed.

Energy, like the economy itself, requires something often invisible: public trust.

A war may occur thousands of kilometers away from Indonesia. But national energy resilience is not determined solely by geographical distance. It depends on calm management, forward-looking policy and a society that is not easily provoked by anxiety.

We live in an era where a spark of global conflict can be felt all the way to a fuel station in a small Indonesian town. Yet as long as supply systems are maintained, technology is utilized and energy strategies are strengthened, there is one attitude we do not need to cultivate.

Panic.

At moments when the world feels uneasy, calmness may be the simplest form of resilience—and perhaps the strongest one.****